Earnings February 12, 2026

Market Overview

Earnings activity today reflects a bifurcated market: traditional financials and some industrials reported resilient results, while software and AI-exposed tech names are triggering headline volatility tied to guidance and cost outlooks. India's SBI reported a profit beat and upbeat loan growth that lifted sentiment in regional markets [26][27], whereas South Korea's Hanwha Aerospace missed revenue and pre-tax profit estimates, highlighting uneven earnings momentum across sectors [25]. At the same time, broader Technology sector sentiment is being reshaped by companies flagging elevated AI-related investments and potential revenue mix/advertising impacts [4][7].

Key Developments

1) Financials: State Bank of India posted better-than-expected profits and stronger loan growth, a clear earnings beat that underpinned investor confidence in bank earnings resilience in the current cycle [26][27]. 2) Defense/Industrials: Hanwha Aerospace’s results missed revenue and pre-tax profit estimates, signaling margin pressure or topline softness in defense-related earnings this quarter [25]. 3) Software/Tech: Multiple signals point to earnings and guidance risk in software. Monday.com dropped heavily as investors reacted to AI disruption concerns that could affect future revenue models and renewal dynamics [14]. Morgan Stanley’s buy call on two beaten-down software names suggests selectivity in earnings recovery opportunities within the sector [1]. 4) Big Tech risk signaling: Alphabet explicitly called out AI-related business risks in its annual report, including potential impacts on its advertising base—this is direct language that can lead to more conservative advertising revenue outlooks in future earnings commentary [4]. Similarly, volatility in hyperscaler stocks followed investor concern about large AI-related expenditure forecasts, which can pressure near-term margins and guidance for enterprise cloud and services providers [7]. 5) Capital and private markets: SoftBank’s upgraded outlook for its telecom unit and strength at Arm improved sentiment for earnings prospects at the group level, showing how asset-level earnings beats can offset some broader tech concerns [13]. Meanwhile, private credit market fears tied to AI pressure on software firms raise the possibility of credit stress that could eventually affect earnings through higher financing costs or restructuring in privately-held software businesses [11]. Databricks’ large funding round signals healthy private demand that could precede IPO earnings expectations, but it also slows immediate public comparables for SaaS earnings analysis [23].

Financial Impact

Earnings implications are twofold: (a) Near-term margin compression risk for software and hyperscalers due to elevated AI R&D and data center spend, which can lead to tempered guidance or increased operating losses versus prior forecasts [7][4]; (b) Select earnings beats in financials and asset-heavy industrials (SBI, parts of SoftBank) provide offsetting market confidence and create relative winners in portfolios [26][13]. For companies like Monday.com, investor reaction indicates market sensitivity to forward-looking commentary on AI displacement risk, which can produce larger-than-normal share moves on guidance misses [14]. Private credit stresses could increase cost of capital for software firms, indirectly pressuring future net income margins [11].

Market Outlook

Expect continued dispersion in earnings reactions: banks and certain industrials with clean balance sheets and visible loan or backlog growth may continue to report steady beats [26][25]. Conversely, software and cloud-adjacent businesses should be monitored for guidance conservatism around AI spend and advertising dynamics—Quarterly calls will matter more than ever as managements quantify AI investment cadence and margin trade-offs [4][7][14]. Analysts should re-calibrate models to include higher near-term operating spend for AI initiatives, scenario-test advertising sensitivity for platform companies, and watch private credit signals that could translate into increased financing costs for growth-oriented software firms [11][23]. Selectivity remains key: Morgan Stanley’s thematic buys underscore opportunities where earnings trajectories are recoverable, but broad software exposure now carries higher guidance and execution risk [1][13][17].